The US/Israel alliance’s 28 February strikes on Iran, interpreted by some observers as being influenced by political considerations rather than purely st what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

The consequences we aftermath of the initial strikes, the military conflict escalated rapidly with retaliatory attacks, and Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz was effective alongside the ongoing risk of disruption to Gulf energy infrastructure, materially altered investor expectations. Global equity markets responded accor ending a challenging March in negative territory (MSCI World -6.3% MoM/-3.5% YTD/+19.4% YoY) as geopolitical risk premia rose and the macroecon more uncertain.

Before the escalation, Brent crude had been trading at c. US$67/bbl, reflecting relatively balanced supply conditions and subdued global demand. Wit investors started to price in the risk of disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through which c. one-fifth of global oil supply passes daily.

A slew of tit-for-ta followed, including US President Donald Trump issuing Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait within 48 hours or risk having its power plants bombed with Iran threatening to ‘completely’ close the corridor if attacked.

The shock has seen global growth forecasts dragged lower, inflation fears and cent timelines just as economies were beginning to stabilise (while, of course, recognising the high humanitarian cost of the crisis, including thousands of Major US indices slid into correction territory, closing March meaningfully lower despite a sharp rally on 31 March.

The catalyst: reports that the war c after Trump told reporters that he expects the US military to leave Iran in “two or three weeks” and a statement from Iranian President Masoud Pezesh willingness to end the war but seeking guarantees.

Still, the S&P 500 ended March down 5.1% (-4.6% YTD/1Q26; +17.8% YoY), its worst monthly perfo Nasdaq fell 4.8% MoM (-7.1% YTD/1Q26; +24.0% YoY) and the Dow snapped its 10-month winning streak, dropping by 5.4% (-3.6% YTD/1Q26; +10.3% At its March meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates on hold (as expected), noting the “uncertain” impact on the US economy from the US-Isr macroeconomic data were mixed.

February headline inflation was unchanged from January at 2.4% YoY (+0.3% MoM), while core inflation, which stri energy prices, remained at 2.5% YoY (+0.2% MoM). US 4Q25 GDP growth was revised lower in March to a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual ra revision was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4%. January’s core personal consumption expenditure (PCE), excluding food and ene inflation gauge, climbed 3.1% YoY, up from December’s 3.0%.

Europe’s energy vulnerability saw European equity markets recording a brutal month (their worst monthly performance in six years) as the outbreak of selling pressure across the continent’s markets. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 9.1% MoM (-3.5% YTD/1Q26; +9.5% YoY), ending eight consecutive mont plummeted 8.9% MoM (-4.1% YTD/1Q26; +3.7% YoY), and Germany’s DAX fell10.3% MoM (-7.4% YTD/1Q26; +2.3% YoY). On the data front, eurozone printing at 1.9% in February from 1.7% in January.

UK equity markets were relatively resilient considering the carnage in Europe, with the FTSE 100 down 6.2% MoM (+3.4% YTD/1Q26; +22.6% YoY). Th leaning structure, deriving around 15% of its total market cap from energy companies and effectively benefitting from an energy shock inflicting dama

The best performers last month were those companies that either produced what suddenly became more expensive (energy – oil) or which sold essen retailers. Sasol was the leading beneficiary of the geopolitical shock and soaring oil prices, with its share price surging by 55.1% MoM; it was March’s higher global fuel prices directly benefitted the Group’s synthetic fuels and chemicals margins.

Despite reporting a full-year loss of R7.1bn (resulting in an R8.8bn asset impairment) and its headline earnings per share (HEPS) falling by 125% YoY Thungela Resources was the month’s second-best performer (+51.0% MoM). Europe stepped up its use of coal for power as gas prices soared and su

Iran’s closure of the Strait, resulting in a sharp rise in coal prices (up c. 20% vs pre-war), and strengthening demand. Ironically, Thungela was ANCHOR  punished world moved away from coal, only to be rescued by Europe’s scramble back to coal in the wake of the Middle East standoff. At a distant third was Exxaro Resources with a 13.6% MoM advance.

Like Thungela, the coal price tailwind boosted Exxaro’s share price while the com with a 3% YoY rise in revenue to R41.8bn and an 8% YoY increase in HEPS to R32.47. The Group also guided to coal exports of up to 8mn tonnes this 2025.

Thungela CEO Ben Magara said that its next growth phase is anchored in a diversified portfolio combining a strong coal base with expansion in its acquisition of a majority stake in Tshipi é Ntle Manganese Mining in late February), renewable energy and select exploration projects. Exxaro was followed by Karooooo Ltd, Glencore Plc and Sun International with MoM gains of 12.5%, 11.8%, and 7.1%, respectively.

Cartrack, which Ka month that it had surpassed 2mn active subscribers in SA, a significant milestone after 20 years in operation. Meanwhile, Glencore had two tailwinds Iran-related tensions and reports that a merger with Rio Tinto could still be on the cards. Sun International’s share price soared after it reported solid F 3% YoY to c. R13bn and HEPS rising by 38.7% YoY.

It also declared a special dividend of ZAc100/share, resulting in its total dividend increasing by 6.5 Chemicals and fertilisers Group, Omnia Holdings (+6.7% MoM), has benefitted from an increase in fertiliser prices. From the start of the conflict to 20 increased by c. 40% with the Strait’s blockage disrupting around 50% of global urea and sulphur exports and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG fertilisers.

This, together with the commodity boom, has resulted in a simultaneous boost for Omnia’s core product lines. Rounding out March’s best performing shares were Boxer Retail, Shoprite Holdings and AECI Ltd with MoM gains of 6.2%, 4.3%, and 4.2%, respectively trading update last month, which showed turnover increasing by 11.9% while it continued to gain market share over the period. The retailer’s deep-valu nicely with SA’s constrained consumer environment.

Shoprite reported strong 1H26 results, continuing its consistent track record of market share gain sector. Group revenue rose by c. 7% YoY to R139bn, while HEPS advanced by 8% YoY. The retailer continues to dominate the domestic retail market, re is 2.3 times faster than the “rest of the market”.

It has now delivered six consecutive years of market share gains, reinforcing its leadership position in Finally, AECI’s share price rise was driven almost entirely by its impressive FY25 results released in late February. The mining and chemicals multinatio R32.1bn, which was down 4% YoY; however, it achieved record earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of R3.4bn and to 11% from 9% in FY24. HEPS soared by 53% YoY to ZAc1,098.

Much like Omnia, it also had an indirect energy crisis tailwind through its mining exp and other commodity producers ramp up activity. Figure 2: The 20 worst-performing shares in March 2026, MoM % change

Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital On the downside, nearly half of the twenty worst-performing shares came from the mining sector as gold and platinum stocks fell sharply because of means for inflation expectations and interest rate pricing, which has, in turn, weighed heavily on gold and PGM prices. Impala Platinum (Implats; -32.4 performer, hammered by platinum’s c. US$1,000/oz collapse, after having peaked at c.

US$2,925/oz in January 2026 before retreating sharply to end

(-17.5% MoM). The Implats CEO has also expressed caution regarding new mining projects, citing long-term demand uncertainties linked to ve ANCHOR  electric amplified investor anxiety around the outlook for PGMs. Still, the business itself is delivering, but the commodity market and broader environment hav Implats was followed by Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater with MoM losses of 28.7% and 27.1%, respectively.

Harmony is a pure gold mining pla price has resulted in a severe drawdown in price – gold is down c. 25% from its January all-time high of US$5,595. Unlike some gold miners that have Harmony has none. Sibanye, meanwhile, is unique in its exposure to gold and PGMs, both assets which recorded significant selloffs in March.

Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon (WBHO) was down 26.6% MoM due to a combination of company-specific earnings disappointment and macro headwin 16% on 3 March after WBHO reported flat FY25 earnings, as its building operations suffered from a big drop in activity in Gauteng and lower mining-re Revenue fell by 4% YoY to R14bn, and HEPS came in at ZAc1,086 from ZAc1,072 in FY24.

Added to that, structural headwinds that the energy shock m rand, which will increase the cost of imported materials and equipment, also weighed on the share price. WBHO was followed by Montauk Renewables, Northam Platinum, Blu Label Unlimited Group and Alexander Forbes with MoM losses of 25.1%, 21.5% respectively. Montauk, which specialises in the management, recovery and conversion of biogas into renewable natural gas, reported disappointing FY coming in essentially flat at US$176.4mn.

At the same time, EBITDA declined by 21% YoY and headline earnings fell 60.4% YoY. A 25% drop in averag Identification Numbers (RIN) pricing to US$2.33 hit its profitability despite stronger natural gas index pricing and higher RIN volumes sold. Like Sibany impacted by weak PGM prices and a difficult external backdrop in addition to rising costs despite strong operational results. Blu Label seems to be a victim of headline confusion more than operational failure.

In its results for the six months ended 30 November 2025, the com R5.2bn, which was largely due to accounting treatments following the listing of Cell C on 27 November 2025, which triggered a non-cash disposal los stripped out, the underlying business delivered R389mn net profit, R535mn EBITDA, and ZAc44 core HEPS.

Alexander Forbes fell on the back of a broa financial sector selling in March and was also in the crossfire of the macro forces that defined the JSE last month, including a hawkish rate shift. The Foschini Group (TFG; -19.1% MoM) and SA Corporate Real Estate (-18.3% MoM) rounded out March’s worst-performing shares. TFG widened its F in February) in March, telling shareholders that both EPS and HEPS are now expected to drop by 20%-plus as weak consumer conditions in the UK, Au weigh on results.

Figure 3: The 20 best-performing shares YTD, % change

Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital

YTD/1Q26, JSE-listed equities’ performances were quite different from the year to end February, as gold and PGM shares were pushed out for the mos March. Twelve of the 20 best-performing shares YTD were unchanged from last month, with a significant overlap with March’s best-performing shares from the Middle East conflict energy shock, a select group of JSE-listed shares turned the geopolitical chaos into impressive shareholder returns.

The top performers: energy, commodities, and companies that sell things people cannot stop buying, regardless of geopolitics.

Leading the charge was Sasol (discussed earlier), surging 112.2% YTD, and the standout beneficiary of Brent crude’s historic 64% March gain. The hig  ANCHOR directly into Sasol’s synthetic fuels margins, making it the purest JSE-listed energy play. Sasol was followed by Thungela Resources (+74.7% YTD) with a remarkable reversal for a coal miner that entered 2026 carrying a full-year loss.

The has forced Europe to pivot back to coal as LNG supply comes under pressure, sending thermal coal prices soaring to a seventeen-month high and res In third place, Glencore (+40.4% YTD) benefitted from the same coal tailwind through its commodity trading and mining operations. Rainbow Chicken, South32 Ltd, AECI and Exxaro Resources are up 30.0%, 29.6%, 28.0% and 25.5% YTD, respectively. South 32, AECI and Exxaro all ca commodity and energy price surge.

Exxaro’s diversified coal and manganese portfolio, combined with improving Transnet rail performance and strong one of the more compelling earnings stories YTD. Sun International (+22.6% YTD), Omnia Holdings (+21.2% YTD) and BHP Group (+19.5% YTD) rounded out the YTD ten best-performing shares. Sun I been as a result of a strong earnings surprise powered by SunBet’s explosive digital growth. Meanwhile, Omnia has benefitted from a 40% global ferti of the Hormuz supply route blockade.

Figure 4: The 20 worst-performing shares YTD, % change

Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital While coal miners and energy stocks celebrated, other cohorts of JSE-listed shares were down significantly YTD, caught between falling commodity p environment, and a geopolitical shock from which they were structurally unable to benefit. This diverse cross-section of companies is united by their e precious metals prices, weakening consumers, rising costs, or global growth fears. Montauk led the losers YTD – down 35.1%.

It was followed by SPAR (-34.3% YTD) and Sappi (-31.3% YTD). Spar has been weighed down by ongoing

down 19% YTD. Harmony Gold, Bytes Technology and Pick n Pay Stores are down 24.1%, 23.3% and 23.3% YTD.

Harmony was hammered by the gold price’s near-25% all-time high, while Bytes has been caught in the broader technology sector de-rating as the possibility of rising rates reduced the appeal of growth sto decline is more of a company-specific earnings issue, as it reported losses wider than previously guided, weak festive season trading, and fierce comp Boxer, which has been eroding its market share at a time when the Group can least afford it.

Rounding out the YTD worst-performing shares were Blu Label Unlimited (discussed earlier; -20.9%) and RCL Foods (-19.3% YTD). RCL released disap  ANCHOR March, largely due to a 49% YoY collapse in its sugar unit’s earnings. Revenue slipped 1.9% YoY to R13.3bn while HEPS from continuing operations fe poor interim results in a macro environment of rising input costs and weak consumer spending, as well as surging oil prices in the consumer staples b weighed on the share price.